The Vikings' Recent Draft History is Very Poor, But Does it Matter?
Generally speaking, a team that's being led by a new regime needs the help from the recent draftees. Minnesota, though, is defying the odds.
Saying goodbye to Akayleb Evans was a surprise. The long and strong corner obviously hadn’t been featured prominently and yet he was the presumed CB4, regularly seeing game action on special teams while Fabian Moreau and Dwight McGlothern were minimized.
Prior to the Bears game, though, Minnesota made the decision to move on. The word came courtesy of Ian Rapoport. Check it out: “The #Vikings are waiving CB Akayleb Evans, per me and @MikeGarafolo, a bit of a surprise for the 2022 draft pick who has 17 starts and plays special teams. With a major roster crunch, Minnesota makes a tough cut.”
The fine folks who are keeping score at home will tell you that the 2022 Draft Class is now down to just 50% of the players sticking around. The number stands at 40% if we account for Nick Muse getting moved to the practice squad.
Even worse, four of the initial five defenders — Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr., Evans, and Esezi Otomewo — have been let go or traded. Brian Asamoah, the fifth defender, is a total non-factor for the defense. Seeing Asamoah get to Year 4 in Minnesota would feel like a surprise at this stage.
Oh, and Ed Ingram was recently demoted, meaning that the ten-person draft class doesn’t have anyone in the starting lineup. Only Jalen Nailor can be said to have a reasonably-large role after Ty Chandler was (like Ingram) demoted earlier in the season.
Is this actually a sustainable approach for the Vikings?
An Unsustainable String of Bad Drafting
The point isn’t to nail drafts. The point is to win football games. And, ultimately, win the football game. If, somehow, a team can do that independent of strong drafts — that is, win the Super Bowl — then that team is still a major success.
The issue, of course, is simply that drafting happens to be one of the primary ways of adding talent. Even better, the talent that gets brought aboard is cost-controlled, allowing for artificially-cheap contracts relative to what a lot of young players offer (See: Jefferson, Justin from 2020-2023).
Jumping back into the summer of 2022 would have featured plenty of optimism about where things were heading with that draft class. And even after things went poorly for a lot of the players during the season itself, it was easy to make excuses.
Minnesota was 13-4 and Ed Donatell was in over his head as a defensive coordinator. Plus, Cine broke his leg just as he started getting a chance, an obvious scenario where the player isn’t at fault for not seeing the field much as a rookie.
But then 2023 arrived and things didn’t get better for the ‘22 draft class. The opposite occurred. Sure, Brian Flores pushed the defense back into respectable territory, but he did so largely independent of those picks. Evans was the only one to carve out a huge job, but he got benched down the stretch and ultimately never returned to his weekly starting job in 2024.
Even worse is that the 2023 draft class (just six players) finds itself in a similar spot and there can’t even be a Donatell-to-Flores transition as the excuse. Already, half of those players are gone due to being cut: Jaquelin Roy, Jaren Hall, and DeWayne McBride.
Jordan Addison looks like an excellent pick. Mekhi Blackmon could still flourish after recovering from his knee injury and maybe Jay Ward steps into a more prominent role if the safety position flips over a bit in 2025. Oh, and snagging Ivan Pace Jr. as an UDFA certainly helps to take away the sting of those missed picks; the linebacker wouldn’t last beyond Day 2 in a re-draft of 2023.
Again, though, the main point: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has done a poor job of drafting. One would be hard pressed to make a convincing argument that that hasn’t been the case.
How Minnesota is Winning
Eventually, the bad drafting is going to catch up with Adofo-Mensah. Does it make a difference in 2024, though?
No shortage of ink has been spilled on detailing just how well the GM did when bringing in free-agent talent from the most recent offseason. Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are tremendous coming off of the edge; each one sits at 9 sacks and seem like locks to soar well into the double digits for the notable stat category.
Blake Cashman can cover and blitz. Stephon Gilmore isn’t elite anymore but he’s strong. Shaq Griffin, too. Brian Flores has been able to lean on all of these veterans to do damage, leading the NFL’s 5th-best defense by averaging just 17.9 points against per game.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has been living up to all of those prophecies about getting his career back on track. The single-season, $10 million contract is a major win for the GM. Darnold is leading a 9-2 team and has a nice collection of stats: he’s completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,717 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Lately, he has been doing better with the interceptions, so the hope is that he’ll continue to improve in that area.
And then Aaron Jones. The former Packer is getting the job done as the team’s RB1. Again, a tremendous free-agent signing. His 179 carries have gone for 798 yards (4.5 average) and 3 scores. Even better, he has added 32 catches for 285 yards and a touchdown.
At some point, though, the GM needs his draft picks to start getting layered into the mix. The difference between the Lions and Vikings largely rests in the draft picks. Yes, Brad Holmes has made nice trades and done a good job with free agents, but where would Detroit be without their young guys? Almost certainly, they wouldn’t be sitting in such an elite spot.
The 2024 season is proving to be a special season for Minnesota (2025 is looking bright, too). How far they can ascend remains to be seen, but it’s safe to say that getting a boost from various young players — Addison, Pace (currently on the IR), Dallas Turner, Will Reichard (on the IR), and potentially others — would function as an extra gust of wind in the Vikings’ sails.
Yes, no time like the present for some of those draftees to overcome expectations. Getting a late-season push from some of those players would be a huge boost to Minnesota as it prepares for the final tournament at the end of the regular season.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
Odds & Ends
Cardinals at Vikings Prediction
Alright, alright: I got it wrong. The guess was that the Bears at Soldier Field would win but Minnesota pulled it off in overtime. Admit it, though: you were nervous, weren’t you? Was there an all-too-common feeling of “here we go again?”
Minnesota gets the chance to push their win streak to five when Arizona comes to town on Sunday. Being at home will feel like a welcome reprieve after spending most of November on the road. I’m saying Kevin O’Connell snags his second five-game win streak of the season.
Final Score: Vikings 33 — Cardinals 24
Season Prediction Record: 8-3
Dad Joke of the Week
Changing things up this week. Rather than turn to social media followers for a dad joke, I turned to a prominent social media account that publishes them. Consider the joke below:
“My friend Joe recently went on the Dolly Parton diet. It really made Joe lean, Joe lean, Joe lean, Joe leannnnnn...” — Dadsaysjokes
Vikings Tidbits and Thoughts
Kyler Murray should inspire some concern. In Chicago, Caleb Williams created some magic by extending plays before rifling the ball down the field. Murray is capable of doing similar things. The Cards’ QB is completing 68.7% of his passes and he has picked up 2,343 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Also concerning is that his 48 rushing attempts have gone for 380 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. is putting together a pretty strong rookie season at receiver. Not Justin Jefferson strong, but very respectable. He has 36 receptions for 546 yards and 6 scores. The 22-year-old pass catcher is going to be very good.
Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel each have 9 sacks. Seeing the pair push their total into the double digits in Week 13 would be one indicator that things are proceeding smoothly for Minnesota.
Can Minnesota’s offense get Justin Jefferson back to his usual level of production? Seeing Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison all have stellar performances was encouraging, but Jefferson is still this team’s cornerstone player.
Special teams matter. Chicago climbed back into the game due to a long kickoff return and then nailing their onside kick. The effort from John Parker Romo and Ryan Wright is encouraging, but the broader group of specialists need to improve. Shout out to Trent Sherfield Jr. for being a stud as a gunner.
Links for the Dinks:
Vikings Rookie Could Find Himself One Snap Away from Jumbo Role: Walter Rouse got scooped up in the 6th Round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah sees a lot of potential, but it’s safe to say that the hope/plan has been to take things slow with the young lineman. Will the team still have that luxury?
Aaron Jones Offers a Reminder to Mike Florio: If the outside doubt helps, then keep reading, Mr. Jones. Minnesota overcame Chicago by a pretty small margin — 3 points in overtime — so maybe the extra motivation made the difference.
Vikings Sign a New QB: Sure, it was predictable, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t smart. Let Daniel Jones settle into his new home and start rebuilding his game. Quite possibly, Jones will turn into a productive passer before it’s all said and done.
Thanks for reading and take care of yourself.