The Main Reason Why the Vikings are Sitting at 3-0
Give Kevin O'Connell, Sam Darnold, and the offense a ton of credit. However, there's a more compelling reason why Minnesota sits atop the NFL.
Brian Flores didn’t get an interview.
A total of eight teams needed a new head coach. In a thirty-two team league, the NFL had 25% of their teams needing a new boss. Somehow, Flores wasn’t seriously considered.
Making that reality even more wild is that of those eight openings, five went toward defensive head coaches (read more).
The Falcons snagged Raheem Morris, the Raiders snagged Antonio Pierce, the Patriots snagged Jerod Mayo, the Seahawks snagged Mike Macdonald, and the Commanders snagged Dan Quinn. So, that’s 5/8 going toward defense.
No doubt, the above list includes some excellent defensive minds. Seeing any of those individual guys get a job isn’t surprising (Mayo in NE, for instance, makes a pile of sense).
Again, though, the lack of interviews for Mr. Flores is confounding (a recent piece from Dustin Baker on VT gets into his HC candidacy - responding to Dan Graziano of ESPN - and touches on how the lawsuit could impact things).
Flores has proven to be a brilliant strategist and is leading one of the NFL’s most formidable defenses across a trio of weeks. And, to be sure, he’s doing so against some of the best teams in the NFL (Giants aside). Plus, his players in Minnesota love him.
What do the numbers tell us about what Flores is doing?
Brian Flores and Defensive Success
C.J. Stroud had a tough day at the office.
As a rookie, Mr. Stroud tossed just 5 interceptions. He had yet to throw a pick in 2024. The Week 3 game involved a pair of his passes getting plucked out of the sky, allowing the Vikings to win the turnover battle by a margin of 2-0.
Even worse for Stroud is that he only had the single touchdown pass and it occurred when the game was largely out of reach. Nico Collins, a monster at wide receiver, had a modest day and Stefon Diggs, another monster at wide receiver, became the top target. It wasn’t enough, especially since the ground game was going nowhere.
True, Joe Mixon was missing, but the Vikings still deserve applause. Cam Akers had 9 carries go for just 21 yards (2.3 YPC average). As a team, the Texans ran 14 times for 38 scoreless yards.
The 2.7 YPC average falls well below what they did across their opening pair of games. Week 1 involved Houston rushing for an eye-popping 213 yards and then Week 2 was down at a more modest 75 rushing yards.
Again, Mixon would have helped, but consider the broader takeaway: Flores took away Houston’s run game and largely limited their top option in the passing game, Mr. Collins. Houston didn’t have enough left over to score, resulting in just 7 points on the road as Minnesota won the game 34-7.
Consider the relationship between the run defense, limiting Collins, and the 5 sacks. Not being able to move the ball on the ground leads to 2nd and 3rd downs where there’s still quite a ways to go, meaning a pass is more likely. On those passes, Collins is the preferred target, but he was mostly neutralized.
Can you see how all of those factors feed into Stroud getting hit a lot? He’s predictably passing and then struggling to find his #1 option. Jonathan Greenard feasted on his old team but the broader pressure was there, too.
The Season as a Whole
Kevin O’Connell is a fan of Brian Flores.
The head coach thinks that the defensive coordinator is getting ahead largely because of the ability to create pre-snap chaos. Or, put differently, being able to disguise what’s actually taking place.
“The offense has a play clock, the defense plays off of the offense” O’Connell explains, “nothing will change, and as long as they don’t change the rules on us, we can disguise and the offense has to adjust to what we’re doing. And then we can get to different things from everything we line up in.”
“We can wait ‘til the snap, and legally do anything as long as we’ve got eleven guys on the field. And they’re allowed to line up anywhere. And we’re pushing the boundaries on that a little bit right now,” O’Connell further said.
Following all of that? Almost like a positionless form of basketball, the Vikings are looking to play a bit of a positionless type of football. Or, at least, stretch the norms of what is typically asked of players in certain positions.
The safeties stand out, of course, as being harbingers of this kind of extreme versatility. But so, too, do the outside linebacker get asked to do a lot and the linebackers are also moving all over the place.
The end result is a defense that often needs to be decoded after the snap. Don’t miss that. So much of what an offense is doing pre-snap is seeking to glean insight about what the defense is going to do; doing so allows for an educated guess post-snap that can lead to success.
If the offense guesses wrong, though, then there could be trouble.
Confusion is the key to making an offense play slow. Needing to decode things in real time prompts the QB to hold onto the ball for just a second longer. Does that extra second allow for the pass rush to get home? After all, we’re talking about a Vikings team that’s sitting at 16 sacks, which was in 1st place in the NFL going into Thursday Night Football (the NY Giants were in a tie for 2nd with 14).
More importantly, the Vikings are second in the NFL by allowing just 10 points per game.
At times, the completions have been there. Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud found a bit of rhythm at different points, but Minnesota proved quite difficult to score on. Holding opponents to 6 points, 17 points, and 7 points is a heck of a way to start a season.
Across three games, Minnesota is allowing an average of 10 points. If the Packers score only 10 points in Week 4, then the Vikings’ offense will have no excuse: a win would become a must.
So much of the success comes down to being tied for second-best team in the NFL when it comes to defending the run, allowing just 214 rushing yards in three games. The 3.6 yards-per-carry average against is elite stuff, making offenses one dimensional. From that reality flows the pass rush. Take away the run game and then put a team into 3rd and long.
At his best, Mike Zimmer did precisely that for Minnesota. Flores is now the man who is orchestrating the run defense excellence before concocting exotic blitzes and d-line games.
The defensive tactician is proving to be one of the game’s elite minds.
Will He Stick Around?
Seeing this success continue may be a bit bittersweet. After all, he’s proving to the NFL that he deserves another shot at leading a franchise. Put simply, there aren’t 32 coaches out there more deserving than Mr. Flores.
One wonders, though, if the appeal of being the DC in Minnesota will be strong enough to keep him around town (and/or if the lawsuit will be a hindrance).
In January, there was a strange moment in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s and Kevin O’Connell’s season-ending press conference. The head coach spoke glowingly about his defensive coordinator, expressing optimism about what was being built. O’Connell sounded like a coach who knew that Flores would be sticking around.
Did Brian Flores make it clear to the NFL that he wasn’t interested in interviewing? Or, perhaps, would he only interview in ideal spots?
O’Connell’s words: “And ultimately, I think the most exciting thing is where Flo is going to take that defense from here. And as we can improve our depth and continue to add pieces to that side of the football, I have so much confidence in what he’s going to be able to do.” Those words arrived on January 10th, long before several head coach openings got filled. Did O’Connell know something that the rest of us didn’t?
Look at the words again. O’Connell’s focus is all about the future: adding talent so that the defense can ascend even higher. And the wild thing is that O’Connell has been proven exactly right. Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, Stephon Gilmore, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jihad Ward, Dallas Turner, Shaq Griffin, and others have all been added to an existing core of solid returners.
Flores has tossed these players into his cauldron and brewed up a terrifying defense. Maybe the possibility to keep building on what’s being accomplished will be enough to keep him around for a little while longer.
Odds & Ends
Vikings at Packers Score Prediction
Hard to pick against Minnesota.
Currently, the offense is playing well, the defense has been elite, and the special teams have been borderline elite. Can they take that kind of performance on the road?
Lambeau Field is a historic spot and has a reputation for being a tough spot to play. Even still, it’s just hard to pick against Minnesota right now. How about a 4-0 record to begin the year?
Final Score: Vikings 24 — Packers 21
Season Prediction Record: 2-1
Dad Joke of the Week
Got a huge response on Twitter this week (too many dad jokes is, to borrow phrasing from the GM, a champagne problem).
No doubt, it was tough to bring things down to just a single joke. Instead, allow me to include the jokes that got the greatest reaction out of my better half, Mrs. Joudry.
“I have a theory on colanders, but it doesn’t hold water.” — JohnnyBSkol
“My favorite childhood memory is building sandcastles with my grandfather, that was until my mother took the urn away from me.” — OGPiperGreg
“What's the best way to carve a piece of wood? Whittle by whittle.” — JordanWrightNFL
Vikings Tidbits and Thoughts
Everything begins and ends with Josh Jacobs (and RB2 Emanuel Wilson). Bottle up the talented runner(s) and Green Bay’s life will become considerably more difficult. Yes, there’s talent among those receivers, but making them a one-dimensional crew will be important.
Safe to say that Vikings fans are feeling really good. What would a win at Lambeau do to those good feelings? Everyone should celebrate a 4-0 record — if it happens — with a Juicy Lucy.
Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander. Two heavyweights going against each other. Last time, the Packers’ CB1 won the matchup. Any chance he has what it takes to get Jefferson again? I, for one, will not be betting against Minnesota’s WR1.
It’s possible that Kenny Clark ruins a lot of plays. The man must circle Minnesota whenever the schedule comes out since he can feast on that interior o-line. Inserting Blake Brandel — read more of his story on TVG — at left guard is looking like a good move, but the Packers have talent up front that will be difficult to corral.
Links for the Dinks
Lewis Cine and The Texans’ Reminder of What Could Have Been: Minnesota’s No. 32 pick went toward safety Lewis Cine; Houston’s No. 37 pick went toward safety Jalen Pitre. Who is playing better in Year 3 in the NFL?
One Viking Has Essentially Switched Positions: Jihad Ward is doing what Minnesota hoped Dean Lowry could do. Mr. Ward is moving up and down the defensive line, creating havoc along the way. Essentially, he is a 3T.
Shutting Down Justin Jefferson: Jefferson vs. Alexander. A pair of heavyweights. Going to be must-see TV.
Thanks for reading and take care of yourself.