The Case for Re-Signing Sam Darnold
The Case for Re-Signing Sam Darnold
The Vikings' veteran QB1 has led Minnesota to a 7-2 record while proving to be solid but not spectacular.
To be sure, Minnesota’s future at quarterback rests in J.J. McCarthy’s hands (and knee).
The Michigan alumnus got snagged with the No. 10 pick in the draft. There’s full belief inside TCO Performance Center that Mr. McCarthy is going to be the franchise passer for a long time, but we’re talking about a 21-year-old who is coming off of a missed season due to a knee injury. Add it all up and maybe there’s some room for another year or two of Sam Darnold.
After all, Kevin O’Connell has consistently articulated his praise and belief in the team’s current starter. Just consider the word following the game. In the locker room, O’Connell leaned on an expletive for emphasis before saying that the entire team knows Darnold is leading the show: “Sam, everybody in this locker room knows that you are the f$^%ing guy that’s going to take us there.”
Applause followed before the head coach cut off the claps to keep delivering his post-game speech.
The Vikings are heavily invested in Mr. Darnold. Does that investment last beyond the current season?
Sam Darnold in 2024
For the most part, the numbers are pretty strong.
Mr. Darnold is completing 68.6% of his passes, a major improvement over past seasons. In fact, he came to Minnesota completing less than 60% of his career passes, so he has made a major leap when it comes to accuracy.
Arm strength has never been the issue; putting the ball in his receivers’ hands has been. O’Connell seems to have given Darnold some accuracy elixir.
And then there are 2,141 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. No doubt, the most recent effort — 24/38 for 241 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs — isn’t helping the season totals.
Nevertheless, the basic numbers look pretty good. Darnold has a 99.2 passer rating for the season. On PFF, he’s coming in as the 17th-best passer with a solid 73.9 grade.
Lost in the shuffle is that he can also be quite elusive as a runner. Darnold has 38 carries for 148 rushing yards. At various points, Darnold has done damage on the ground, picking up 15 first downs with his legs.
Most importantly of all, Darnold has led Minnesota to a 7-2 record. Pushing Minnesota into the double-digits for wins isn’t a foregone conclusion but it appears more likely than not. Not bad considering that he’s costing just $10 million, eh?
The Forming Consensus
Admittedly, I’m intentionally zigging while most others are zagging. Or, put differently, giving voice to a side of the argument that seems to be quickly fading from the broader Vikings discussion.
Over on PurplePTSD (where I do most of my writing), managing editor Janik Eckardt prophesied about a future without Mr. Darnold: “There’s simply no way the regime of O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would tie their future to a quarterback like Darnold, who might be alright in the perfect circumstances but, at the end of the day, is a spot starter for a team without any other QB options or a backup for a team that does have one. He has proven that he’s not a franchise quarterback; he’s simply making too many mistakes.”
Meanwhile, Will Ragatz of Sports Illustrated ventured into a similar sentiment on social media. The thought: “At the risk of being a prisoner of the moment, I'd say the last couple games have made it abundantly clear that J.J. McCarthy will be this team's quarterback next season.”
Kevin Seifert of ESPN, though quick to note Kevin O’Connell’s belief in Darnold, shared one of the core problems: “Sam Darnold now leads the NFL with 13 turnovers. (He did get credit for a fumble on Ty Chandler's dropped pitch in Week 5). Regardless, Kevin O'Connell *effusively* expressed confidence in him postgame.”
Indeed, the safest bet is that Sam Darnold will be one-and-done in Minnesota. After all, McCarthy was chosen in that precise draft slot for a reason: to become Minnesota’s franchise QB. Veteran journeymen can be signed literally every NFL offseason; snagging a young franchise passer (almost) always happens in just a single manner: a high pick in the draft.
Sensibly, a lot of people are looking into the crystal ball and seeing a future with McCarthy and not Darnold. Again, though, that final point that Seifert highlights: O’Connell’s genuine praise for his top passer.
The Dollars and Cents
The 2025 budget appears to be robust.
Per OTC, the Vikings will be rolling into the offseason with roughly $74.4 million (a recent tweet from OTC puts the number closer to $65 million, 6th in the NFL). Notably, that budget is already accounting for $5 million being devoted toward Sam Darnold since his deal includes some void years. More specifically, there are four void years tacked onto the deal, which is what allowed Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to stretch out the $6.25 million signing bonus to keep the cap hit down in 2024.
Any chance Adofo-Mensah looks to venture into those void years by turning some of them into real years? Put differently, would he look to extend Darnold by a season or two, providing his team with some greater assurance at quarterback as McCarthy bounces back from his knee injury.
Earlier in the week, ESPN published a piece where NFL insider Jeremy Fowler speculated about Darnold coming back: “But Darnold and Minnesota are 7-2 together, so entertaining a bridge deal while the team continues to develop McCarthy behind the scenes shouldn't be completely off the table. Darnold's decision-making on the field down the stretch will determine a lot about his future.”
J.J. McCarthy has proven very little at the NFL level. There has been some impressive offseason work and a top-notch preseason contest but nothing else. Partner those things with a great college career — albeit one where he wasn’t asked to do too much — and you can see the issue and the promise.
Oh, and he’s coming off a major injury and will be stepping into a QB room in 2025 that has him under contract … and then no one else (at least at the moment).
The Vikings have proven that they can win with Darnold. Quite convincingly, in fact. And while the recent play is concerning, the recent play could also be a factor that makes Darnold’s return more plausible. Minnesota believes in Darnold even if the play isn’t always perfect; does the imperfect play help to drive his asking price down in the offseason?
If so, the Vikings could roll into 2025 with Darnold & McCarthy back at the top of the ticket. May the best man win. And, in the end, that could be Darnold. If not, then McCarthy will get the nod as Darnold functions as one of the game’s preeminent backups.
The scenario isn’t likely, folks, and yet it isn’t impossible either. After all, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has repeatedly proven that he is willing to do things his own way. Sam Darnold is the QB1 for Minnesota in 2024 and may come back in 2025 to compete once again.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
Odds & Ends
Vikings at Titans Prediction
Once again, the Vikings will be taking on an AFC South opponent. The past pair of games have gone reasonably well, at least in terms of the final outcome. Minnesota overcame both Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Does Tennessee become the third victim?
Truth be told, the Vikings are playing the kind of football that makes it hard to be overly confident. Coming out of the bye, there were a pair of losses and then a pair of ugly wins. Some people are understandably skeptical. The good news is simply that the Titans are a mess and they sold at the NFL trade deadline. Give me the Vikings.
Final Score: Vikings 27 — Titans 13
Season Prediction Record: 7-2
Dad Joke of the Week
Have a pair to pass along. Enjoy.
Dad Joke #1: “Did you hear about the chameleon who couldn’t change colour? He had reptile dysfunction.” — thejoudry
Dad Joke #2: “A dragon probably won’t explode. A Dino might.” — TheSkolHop
Vikings Tidbits and Thoughts
Blitzing the linebackers worked. The Jags couldn’t handle the pressure that was coming from Ivan Pace and Blake Cashman. Do we see Brian Flores go back to what worked as he seeks to fluster Tennessee’s passer?
Aaron Jones is tough, but would it be fair to say he’s a bit injury-prone? In the past, the RB1 has had to overcome injuries. Minnesota’s offense needs him to keep things balanced. Maybe shift some of the workload to the other runners?
Josh Oliver got ignited at precisely the moment that T.J. Hockenson returned. Odd, right? The re-entry of Hockenson into the offense would seemingly minimize Oliver in the passing game, but the opposite has happened.
For two straight weeks, Flores has put together some dominant defenses. Tennessee provides the chance to push that to three straight weeks. The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL by allowing just over 17 points against per game.
So far, so good for John Parker Romo. There was one nail biter, but he provided the only purple points. He and Jake McQuaide will look to keep the good times rolling on the road in Week 11.
Links for the Dinks:
Ten Things We Know about the Vikings After Week 10 in the NFL: Already, the majority of the season is behind us. What have we learned about the 2024 Minnesota Vikings?
A “Crazy” Vikings QB Theory Gets Ignited by National NFL Analyst: Not happening. The only thing that would bring Ryan Tannehill to Minnesota is an injury.
Demoted Vikings Playmaker Gets Rolled Back into the Offense in Week 10: Ty Chandler hasn’t had a great third season. He was supposed to do quite a bit of work for the offense but Aaron Jones’ excellence and Cam Akers’ emergence have been a hurdle to clear, especially since he hasn’t played particularly well (apart from Week 2).
Thanks for reading and take care of yourself.